CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PERMUTATIONS: WHAT’S AT STAKE IN FINAL WEEK OF GROUP STAGE?
Matchday six of the Uefa Champions League is upon us – the most stressful midweek of the season for some clubs, and potentially the most lucrative too.
This time around there are plenty of sides who are already sitting pretty and assured of their spot in the competition once the knockout stage begins in the new year, but others still have a bit of work to do, have top spot to fight for, or a Europa League berth to attain – and Group D remains totally up for grabs.
From the Premier League teams involved, Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool are certain to be involved in the last 16, while Tottenham Hotspur have a big night ahead. Scottish Premiership sides Celtic and Rangers are both out, but the latter retain the slimmest possible chance of continuing their European campaign.
As a quick reminder, the tie-breaking format when teams finish level on points in a group is as follows:
Here’s how each group stands ahead of the final round of games, and the results teams need to progress.
Group A
Tuesday 8pm: Liverpool vs Napoli; Rangers vs Ajax
Despite Liverpool’s dismal domestic form, they have made it through to the last 16 in Europe with room to spare – and could yet top the group.
They’ll need a big win to do so though, having been demolished 4-1 by Napoli back in early September.
The free-scoring Italians have hit 20 in five games so the Reds will need at least a four-goal margin of victory at Anfield to finish top.
Despite Rangers having lost every match and scored only one goal, they could still come third and take a Europa League berth – but they’ll need to beat Ajax at least 5-0 for that to happen.
Not too many probably picked Club Bruges and FC Porto to be the pair to progress ahead of Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen, but that’s what’s happened.
After Atleti’s failure to reach the last 16 was confirmed in crazy late circumstances last time out, they must now at least equal Leverkusen’s last result to stay third and head into the Europa. If the German side take a point and Atletico lose at Porto, Leverkusen will move into third on head-to-head results.
Bruges are a point ahead of Porto but both teams won 4-0 in away games against each other, so it’ll go to overall group goal difference if Porto draw and Bruges lose – which will see Porto top the group.
Group C
Tuesday 8pm: Bayern Munich vs Inter Milan; Viktoria Plzen vs Barcelona
Bayern are top, Inter are second. Barcelona are third and into the Europa. Plzen are bottom and pointless. This group is all done.
Anything can happen… including Spurs topping the group or dropping out the Champions League. They can bank on a Europa League spot, though.
The oddest scenario here is Marseille winning and the other game finishing in a draw – leaving three sides on eight points and the French club topping the group on nine. If that happens, it’s a three-way head-to-head.
First though, Spurs’s permutations. If they win, they top the group. If they draw, they are definitely through – though they’ll be top only if the other match is a draw too.
If Spurs lose, lots could happen, but Marseille would definitely go through to the last 16. The French side cannot finish in the top two unless they win.
Should either team win out of Sporting and Eintracht, they progress: top if Spurs don’t win or second if they do.
If Marseille win and Sporting draw, the three-way head-to-head puts the French side top and the Portuguese side second. Spurs would finish third, Eintracht fourth.
Should Spurs win or draw and Sporting and Eintracht still draw, then Sporting finish second, Eintracht third, and Marseille fourth.
Marseille can at least finish third if they draw and Eintracht win – Sporting would then drop out of Europe entirely.
Wednesday 8pm: AC Milan vs Salzburg; Chelsea vs Dinamo Zagreb
Chelsea are through and have secured top spot with a game to spare, thanks to a better head-to-head record over Milan who are the only side who can finish level on points with them.
The Blues’ opponents Zagreb, however, can still come third – they need to win and have Milan beat Salzburg to do so.
That match in Italy is a winner-takes-all for second place and the last 16; a draw also sees the San Siro side progress.
Real Madrid will finish top if they beat Celtic, who are already guaranteed to finish last. Real will also take first place if Leipzig fail to win, regardless of their own result.
The Germans are three points above Shakhtar but were hammered by the Ukrainians in their last meeting, so if Shakhtar can pull off another win, they will go through in second place on head-to-head results.
Another group already wrapped up, despite each side being separated from the next by only three points.
Man City are assured of top spot thanks to their head-to-head record with Dortmund, who are second and through thanks to a better head-to-head record over Sevilla.
Continuing the theme, Sevilla are three points ahead of Copenhagen but will stay third regardless thanks to head-to-head results.
Wednesday 8pm: Maccabi Haifa vs Benfica; Juventus vs Paris Saint-Germain
PSG and Benfica are through and level on 11 points, with top spot to be determined.
Both games between the pair were drawn 1-1, so if they both earn the same result on the final night, it’ll go to group goal difference which currently sees PSG ahead by four, so Benfica would need a huge win to swing it around. Obviously, if one wins or draws while the other draws or loses, the side picking up more points will top the group and no head-to-head is required.
For third place the same applies: Maccabi Haifa and Juve are both on three points.
They both beat each other with the same goal difference and goals scored, so it’ll be group goal difference as the next decider if they stay level on points, which would likely put the Italians third unless they are thrashed by PSG.
